Payrolls fell, yields didn't — and the JSE Top 40 still rose 4.01%

A data-led review of energy, inflation, policy rates, equities, currencies and South African markets — in a month when a supply shock and a hawkish Federal Reserve reshaped returns.

Although the conflict in Iran remains central, investors are becoming more comfortable with their view on outcomes.

Markets were supported by strong earnings while central banks remained cautious, with rate cuts pushed out and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment increasingly priced in.

Geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices, and evolving policy signals kept investors on edge, even as resilience in economic data offered cautious optimism.

Once again we noticed how quickly market conditions can shift when geopolitical risks intersect with inflation dynamics.

Significant headlines drove heightened market volatility, with geopolitical developments in the Middle East introducing another layer of uncertainty.

Rolling waves of opportunity and uncertainty, political messaging and commodity dynamics replaced any straight path toward clarity.

The Federal Reserve dropped rates by 25bp and commodities and precious metals rallied, while equities consolidated after a long run.

Macroeconomic forces, policy shifts, and sector-specific developments shaped investor sentiment and asset performance.

Internationally, the U.S. government shutdown continued to inject volatility into both equity and fixed income markets, while SA remained stable

Trade policy remained a headwind, and the looming threat of a US government shutdown further complicated the macro backdrop

Political moves, inflation and market strength all played a role in making it a complex and active month for investments

In spite of the tension in the Middle East and the trade policy deadline looming, markets showed resilience in some high-growth sectors

Volatility eased compared to April but uncertainty persisted as the U.S. economic sentiment was shaped by shifting trade policies, fiscal concerns, and inflation pressures.

In the last month single day moves of indices have mirrored previous financial crises, which created an uncertain environment for investors. This has affected SA markets although a VAT increase was avoided and the GNU remains intact which is good news.

Market sentiment shifted dramatically due to the US falling out of favour with a number of investors, US stock driving sell-offs, and complex local budget processes.

2025 is looking to be a year focused on policy, as Trump continues to implement hefty trade tariffs, and South Africa sees a postponement of the Budget for the first time in our Democracy.